EUR analysis 25.07.2019

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrowly bearish range during the Asian session to stabilize near its two-month low against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected Thursday by Eurozone economies and the US economy, the world's largest economy. On the issue of Britain's exit from the European Union.

At 04:48 GMT, the EURUSD dropped 0.04% to 1.1135, compared to the opening at 1.1140, after the pair reached a low of 1.1134 and a high of 1.1144.

The markets are currently looking for the Spanish economy's fourth-biggest economy to see a reading of the Unemployment Rate Index, which may drop to 13.7% from 14.7% in the first quarter, before the German economy is seen as the biggest economy in the euro zone. Which could reflect the widening of the widening to 97.1 versus 97.4 last June.

This comes ahead of the European Central Bank meeting, during which zero interest rates may be maintained and the marginal lending rate stabilized at 0.25% with a negative deposit rate of -0.40% ahead of the upcoming ECB President Mario Draghi's speech. Who said after the previous meeting that the ECB was ready to cut interest rates to boost growth.

Draghi noted last month that the European Central Bank is ready to adopt a new monetary stimulus in buying bonds to support economic growth in the euro area, adding that these actions come at a time of increasing uncertainty about trade disputes and their effects on the global economy, adding that The European Central Bank is ready to use all means and instruments available to it to drive growth and revive exports and the European industry.

In the same vein, Draghi, who recently announced a new round of long-term refinancing operations, "TLTROs," which began by September of this year until March 2021 with a two-year maturity of zero interest, Discuss details of how to respond to investor fears in the European markets about the weakening inflationary pressures and economic growth in the euro area.

In another context, we followed Wednesday the European Union's Trade Commission, Cecilia Malmstrom, that the Union would take similar measures in case the United States imposed customs tariffs on cars imported from EU countries and that the value of goods that may be subject to customs duties by the Union estimated at 35 billion euros , Adding that trade issues were a priority for the union and that it always demanded that there should be no drift behind unilateral trade policies.

Otherwise, the European Parliament also noted in a press statement yesterday that the European countries want Britain to leave the Union in an orderly manner so as to achieve the interests of the two parties, and that the European Union will not agree to reopen the negotiations on the British exit agreement, This can only be ensured by respecting and protecting the rights of citizens, fulfilling financial obligations and implementing the Backstop Plan on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

This comes after the hours of the announcement of the British Conservative Party, former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, the leadership of the party and the British Prime Minister, replacing the former British Prime Minister Theresa Mai, and we would like to point out that Johnson is one of the strongest opponents of the survival of Britain in the Union has expressed after taking office that he is committed to his country Of the union by the deadline by the end of October.

On the other hand, the markets are currently looking for the US economy to detect the Durable Goods Orders, which account for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which could reflect a 0.8% rise from a 1.3% drop in May While the core reading of the index itself may show a slowdown in growth to 0.2% from 0.4% in May.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the trade balance of goods which may indicate that the deficit shrank to $ 72.4 billion from $ 74.5 billion in May and the initial reading of the Wholesale Inventories Index, which may reflect the acceleration of growth to 0.5% from 0.4% In addition to the reading of the index of claims for the week ending on the 20th of this month, which may reflect a rise of 4 thousand applications to 220 thousand applications.

The EUR / USD pair is showing further negative trading gradually approaching our first target at 1.1100, and the price is under constant negative pressure coming from the 50 MA to support the break below and then extend the downside wave to reach our next target of 1.1000.

Therefore, we will continue to bias the bearishness during the coming sessions provided that the price remains stable below 1.1180, with caution during the day, especially at the time of the interest rate decision for the euro and the press conference of the President of the European Central Bank.

The trading range for today is expected between 1.1030 and 1.1200 support

The general trend for today is bearish.