Gold Analysis 25.07.2019

Gold futures traded in a tight range slipping into the Asian session to see their fourth session rebound in five sessions from its highest since May 10, 2013 amid the rise of the US dollar index for the fourth session in six sessions of its lowest since July 4 According to the inverse relationship between them.

This comes just before Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Phillip Lowe delivered a speech entitled "Targeting Inflation and Economic Wellbeing" at the Anika Foundation in Sydney and the launch of the European Central Bank meeting and the forthcoming ECB press conference and on the eve of the economic developments on Thursday by the US economy. The world's largest economy.

Gold futures for August delivery fell 0.31% to currently trade at $ 1,422.40 per ounce compared with the opening at $ 1,426.80 an ounce. The contracts opened the session on a bullish price gap after closing the trading session. At $ 1.423.60 an ounce, as the dollar index rose 0.05% to 97.72 compared to the opening at 97.68.

Investors are now waiting for the ECB meeting to take place at which zero interest rates could be maintained and the marginal lending rate stabilized at 0.25% with a negative deposit rate of -0.40% ahead of the upcoming ECB President Mario Draghi, who said after the previous meeting that the European Central Bank is ready to cut interest rates to promote growth.

Draghi noted last month that the European Central Bank is ready to adopt a new monetary stimulus in buying bonds to support economic growth in the euro area, adding that these actions come at a time of increasing uncertainty about trade disputes and their effects on the global economy, adding that The European Central Bank is ready to use all means and instruments available to it to drive growth and revive exports and the European industry.

In the same vein, Draghi, who recently announced a new round of long-term refinancing operations, "TLTROs," which began by September of this year until March 2021 with a two-year maturity of zero interest, Discuss details of how to respond to investor fears in the European markets about the weakening inflationary pressures and economic growth in the euro area.

On the other hand, the markets are currently looking for the US economy to detect the Durable Goods Orders, which account for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which could reflect a 0.8% rise from a 1.3% drop in May While the core reading of the index itself may show a slowdown in growth to 0.2% from 0.4% in May.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the trade balance of goods which may indicate that the deficit shrank to $ 72.4 billion from $ 74.5 billion in May and the initial reading of the Wholesale Inventories Index, which may reflect the acceleration of growth to 0.5% from 0.4% In addition to the reading of the index of claims for the week ending on the 20th of this month, which may reflect a rise of 4 thousand applications to 220 thousand applications.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold opens today with a new bullish bias in an attempt to resume the main ascending trend, supported by SMA 50, while Stochastic continues to move near oversold areas.

Therefore, we believe that opportunities are available to trade positively during the coming sessions, awaiting the visit of 1450.00, which represents our main target, while stability above 1410.90 is an important condition for the continuation of the suggested bullishness.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 1410.00 and resistance at 1440.00

The general trend for today is bullish.